The "What If" Game

As a former OPOTA instructor, I’ll tell you the same thing I told cops: the cleanest win is the problem you never have. For civilians and families, that doesn’t mean “be tactical.” It means building calm, repeatable habits that help you notice early, position smart, and leave before chaos picks you. The “What If” game is one of the easiest ways to do that—no gear, no drama, no paranoia.

Definition: The “What If” game is a situational-awareness micro-exercise. You take an ordinary scene and run a short mental script: What if something changes right now? Then you pre-decide your first one or two actions (not a whole movie plot). FEMA uses similar “What would you do?” scenario prompts in preparedness materials, and FEMA’s IS‑907 active-shooter course literally tells learners to look around a room and consider what they would do—because mental rehearsal is part of readiness.

The psychology is straightforward. Endsley defines situational awareness as (1) perception of what’s present, (2) comprehension of what it means, and (3) projection of what’s likely next.

The “What If” game mainly trains that third level—projection—because you’re rehearsing the next few seconds. Boyd’s OODA loop reinforces the same idea from a decision perspective: Observe and Orient well, and your Decide/Act steps get faster and cleaner.

Here’s the “humbling” part: your brain lies to you about how much you notice. In inattentional-blindness research, many people miss an unexpected but visible event while doing a primary task—because attention is limited.

In real life, our “primary task” might be a phone, a kid meltdown, or hunting for the right aisle. The point isn’t shame; it’s design: make your safety habits so small and simple they still happen when you’re distracted.

How to play in 30–60 seconds: (1) Observe: identify exits, bottlenecks, and where you’d get stuck. (2) Orient: what’s normal here, and what’s off—based on behavior/context, not stereotypes. Threat assessment guidance stresses evaluating behaviors and communications in context rather than relying on traits.

(3) Decide: pick your first two moves (“If X, we do A then B”). (4) Communicate: if you’re with family, quietly confirm a meetup spot or code word.

Now the practical scenarios—concise prompts plus a simple decision tree. Gas station: What if someone approaches aggressively while I’m pinned at the pump? If you can reposition, do it; if it escalates, create distance, get in the vehicle, leave, call 911 when safe. Grocery store: What if yelling or a fight breaks out near us? If you can route away, do; if it moves toward you, exit. Parking lot: What if I think I’m being shadowed to my car? Break the pattern by moving back toward people or inside; ask staff/security for help; call 911 if you feel threatened. Playground: What if I lose line-of-sight on my child? Freeze, scan obvious exits/paths, recruit another adult to watch an exit, then escalate to 911 if you can’t reestablish contact quickly. Public transit: What if someone escalates verbally or behaves erratically? Create distance, change cars/seats or exit at a safe stop, notify transit staff. Home: What if someone pounds on the door at night? Keep a barrier, verify, and call 911 if needed. Workplace: What if conflict walks into my workspace? Move to a public area, bring in a supervisor/security, and disengage early.

Training should progress. Stress inoculation research describes learning as staged: education, skill rehearsal, and then application under increasing realism.

Start with Level 1 (solo): every time you enter a place, name two exits. Level 2 (couples/parents): add one code word (“leave now”) and one meetup point. Level 3 (family): do low-drama drills: once a week, practice leaving a store via an alternate exit and regrouping. Keep it short, calm, and age-appropriate (if you have children, you’ll tailor language and expectations—this article assumes general adults, not a specific child age).

Communication and de-escalation are your “force multipliers.” Police training literature emphasizes buying time, slowing situations down, and using communication skills to reduce volatility; while civilians aren’t policing anyone, the principle still applies: time + distance = options.

Use short, neutral phrases (“No thanks.” “Can’t help.”), avoid arguing, and disengage. If authorities arrive in a threat event, federal guidance repeatedly stresses hands visible, follow instructions, and call 911 when safe.

Legal/safety reality check: the “What If” game is not permission to confront strangers, chase people, or “detain” anyone. It’s an avoidance-and-report tool. DHS guidance is clear: report suspicious activity to law enforcement and include the “5 W'

s” (who/what/when/where/why).

If you want a preparedness add-on that’s still civilian-appropriate, consider “after the incident” skills like severe bleeding control—STOP THE BLEED® is an official program designed to train the public.

The win you’re chasing is simple: your family moves early, communicates clearly, and gets home safe.